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The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which begins June 1, will be "near-normal" according to the annual forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
This is the first time in eight years that the May outlook hasn't forecast an above-average number of storms. NOAA is predicting 12 to 17 named storms, which includes both tropical storms and hurricanes. About half of those are expected to be full-blown hurricanes. Not all storms make landfall.
Still, federal officials warn that people who live in hurricane-prone areas should not focus too much on the total number of storms.
"Remember it only takes one storm to devastate a community," says Rick Spinrad, who leads NOAA. "It's time to prepare."
That means making a plan for how to evacuate if a storm is headed your way, getting ready for power outages and thinking about how to care for elderly family members, people with disabilities, children and pets.
Hurricane risks extend to those who live far from the coast where storms make landfall. Even relatively weak storms can cause dangerous flooding inland, and climate change is making heavy rain from hurricanes more common. And although peak hurricane season won't arrive until later in the summer, forecasters are adamant that a devastating storm can occur at any time.
The damage caused in Guam this week by Typhoon Mawar, which was the first storm of the Pacific hurricane season, underscores that danger.
There is also extra uncertainty about what this year will hold because of the strange confluence of conditions in the Atlantic.
On one hand, the climate pattern El Niño will almost certainly take hold in the coming months, and persist through peak hurricane season in the late summer and early fall. That will create wind conditions that disrupt hurricanes.
But the ocean water in the area where hurricanes form is abnormally warm right now, and is expected to stay that way throughout hurricane season, which runs through November. That's part of a global trend of rising ocean temperatures due to climate change, although scientists are still trying to understand what is driving this year's record-breaking ocean heat.
What is clear is that warmer water helps hurricanes form.
So, will the 2023 conditions be bad for hurricanes overall, or good? Forecasters say it's a little unclear.
"It's definitely kind of a rare setup for this year," says Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. He says his team of forecasters are extremely experienced when it comes to predicting what will happen during hurricane season, but that there is almost no historical precedent for this year. "When we looked at it we were definitely, like, 'Wow, there's a lot of uncertainty this year.'"
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Transcript :
JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
The forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is in. Federal scientists are expecting a near-normal number of storms, but normal does not mean good. NPR's Rebecca Hersher explains why.
REBECCA HERSHER, BYLINE: There are between 12 and 17 named storms predicted, which includes both tropical storms and hurricanes. About half will be full-blown hurricanes, forecasters expect. That's close to normal, but a normal hurricane season is still a very dangerous hurricane season. Rick Spinrad leads the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
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RICK SPINRAD: It's time to prepare. Remember; it only takes one storm to devastate a community.
HERSHER: Last year was the poster child for this. It was very quiet throughout the summer, and then Hurricane Ian came barreling in and devastated Florida. And that's after multiple years of back-to-back storms hitting the U.S. In fact, this is the first time in eight years that NOAA hasn't predicted an above-average hurricane season. So that's a bit of good news. But it also means that there are many, many places where people are still trying to rebuild from a past storm while also preparing for this hurricane season. Deanne Criswell leads the Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA.
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DEANNE CRISWELL: Any time we have a community that is still going through a recovery from a previous storm, it just makes them that much more vulnerable.
HERSHER: This year's forecast also has extra uncertainty baked into it, scientists say. That's because of a strange confluence of events in the Atlantic. On one hand, the climate pattern known as El Nino will almost certainly begin in the coming months. El Nino causes wind conditions in the Atlantic that disrupt storms, so fewer hurricanes, but climate change is causing the ocean water to heat up. Right now the water in the Atlantic is abnormally warm and will stay that way this summer. And warmer water helps hurricanes form, so more hurricanes. Matthew Rosencrans is NOAA's lead hurricane season forecaster.
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MATTHEW ROSENCRANS: That is definitely kind of a rare setup for this year. When we looked at it, we were like, wow, this is - there's a lot of uncertainty this year in the outlook.
HERSHER: Which is another reason to prepare for hurricane season no matter what the numbers say. That includes making a plan for evacuating and for prolonged power outages. Rebecca Hersher, NPR News.
(SOUNDBITE OF RENAO SONG, "LIFELINE") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.