Last weekend, presidential hopeful Michael Bloomberg was in Fort Bend County, doing a "block walk" for a local Democrat running for the Texas House. It’s the one race in Fort Bend County that could help tip the balance of power at the State Capitol, and nationally, Democrats like the former New York City mayor are targeting the contest.
This January 28, Democrat Eliz Markowitz will face Republican Gary Gates in the special election runoff for Texas House District 28. If Markowitz wins, it will reduce the Republican margin of control in the state House to just eight seats.
"So this is a very important election, in many ways a harbinger, for the Democrats at least and a warning to the Republicans, which I think they have been well aware of for a while, that things are not as they were,” said Bob Stein, who teaches political science at Rice University.
Stein estimates there are at least 17 competitive Republican statehouse seats going into the 2020 cycle. He said Republicans won roughly half of those seats in 2018, including HD-28, with margins of fewer than 5 percentage points.
Fort Bend County was previously a Republican stronghold, but it has been trending Democratic over the last two election cycles. That's in large part due to the increasing ethnic diversity of the county.
Early voting begins January 21. The winner of the special election will still need to run for a full term in November in order to take a seat in the 2021 Texas Legislature.
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