Election 2016

What Texas Voters Can Take Away From New Hampshire’s Primary

Candidates that manage a strong finish in the Granite State, even if they lose, are likely to be on the ballot March 1, Super Tuesday, when Texans have their say.

Texas and New Hampshire are shaded in on a us map
Texas and New Hampshire

With just one day to go before New Hampshire votes, Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders remain the favorites to win their respective primaries. Some of their top competitors are already looking beyond Tuesday to the next phase of the campaign.

Houston Public Media's Coverage of Election 2016

Houston Public Media's Coverage of Election 2016

GOP candidates who poll badly in New Hampshire are likely to see funding dry up and staff members quit. Those who finish second, third, or even a strong fourth can still position themselves as rallying figures for Republican voters opposed to Trump.

Mark Jones is a fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute. He says these are the ones who will have a shot at staying in the race until Super Tuesday.

"The first four primaries and caucuses really are much more about momentum, perceptions, and expectations than they are about actual delegate allocation," Jones says. "That's not the case on March 1, when approximately one out of every four delegates to the Republican National Convention will be decided." That includes the delegates from Texas, where Senator Ted Cruz maintains a strong lead.

On the Democratic side, Jones says that once the competition moves south, demographics are in Hillary Clinton's favor.

"Sanders tends to do well when there's a high proportion of the Democratic primary electorate constituted by liberal Anglos," he says. "That's the case in Iowa. It's the case in New Hampshire. It's not the case in South Carolina. It's not the case in Nevada. And it's not the case in an overwhelming majority of the states that are going to be holding their primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday."

More than 1,000 Democratic delegates are at stake March 1. That's almost half of those needed to win the nomination.

Subscribe to Today in Houston

Fill out the form below to subscribe our new daily editorial newsletter from the HPM Newsroom.

* required

Share

Andrew Schneider

Andrew Schneider

Politics and Government Reporter

Andrew heads Houston Public Media’s coverage of national, state, and local elections. He also reports on major policy issues before the Texas Legislature and county and city governments across Greater Houston. Before taking up his current post, Andrew spent five years as Houston Public Media’s business reporter, covering the oil...

More Information