Houston Matters

Will Changing Demographics Really Turn Texas Blue Someday?

A new Gallup poll calls into question the conventional wisdom that changing demographics in Texas might lead to a change in statewide political power. The concept goes like this: more and more Hispanics are in Texas every year. Historically, they’re a voting bloc that leans heavily Democratic. Therefore, changing demographics in Texas suggest Democrats might […]

A new Gallup poll calls into question the conventional wisdom that changing demographics in Texas might lead to a change in statewide political power. The concept goes like this: more and more Hispanics are in Texas every year. Historically, they’re a voting bloc that leans heavily Democratic. Therefore, changing demographics in Texas suggest Democrats might soon overtake Republicans in statewide races. But the new poll indicates Hispanic and Anglo residents in Texas identify with the Republican Party much more than the national average. 27 percent of Hispanics in Texas identify with the GOP – that’s the largest percentage in six years, and higher than anywhere else in the country.

Still, even here in Texas, Hispanic voters favor Democrats by a wide margin over Republicans.

Is it all just a question of math, and time? Will an increasingly diverse Texas eventually just turn purple, then blue? Or are such breakdowns based on ethnicity generalizations that won’t necessarily bear out?

We ask a pair of area political science professors whether they see a political change developing in Texas, or just wishful thinking from the long-standing minority party.

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