The Texas Economic Activity Index fell 0.4 of a point in June to a level of 98.5. The June reading is 27 points, or 37%, above the cyclical low set in June 2009 at the depths of the recession.
Robert Dye is chief economist for Comerica Bank.
“My sense of it is that even though we did see a small dip in June, the Texas economy remains in very good shape, and my expectation is that we’ll continue to see an upward trend here in the months ahead.”
Dye attributes the dip to declines in energy prices and residential construction permits in June compared to May. Among other factors that make up the index, drilling activity remains strong, manufacturing conditions are solid, and the rate of overall job creation is well above the national average.
Graph designed by Comerica Bank
The Texas Economic Activity Index consists of seven variables, as follows: nonfarm payrolls, exports, sales tax revenues, hotel occupancy rates, continuing claims for unemployment insurance, building permits and Baker Hughes rotary rig count. All data are seasonally adjusted, as necessary, and indexed to a base year of 2008. Nominal values have been converted to constant dollar values. Index levels are expressed in terms of three-month moving averages.