Comerica’s Texas Economic Activity Index rose 1.5 % points in May to just under 99 — that’s 38% above the cyclical low set in mid-2009.
Chief economist Robert Dye credits a combination of strong job creation and drilling activity for the state’s healthy growth rate. He says housing is also gaining momentum, as home sales increase and construction activity picks up. But Dye says there are causes for concern.
“We are also very cognizant of outside risks emanating from beyond the U.S. shores, both in terms of cooler growth of Asia and certainly the ongoing crisis in the euro zone, which seems never to go away. As well as [another concern is] the approaching fiscal cliff here in the U.S., that combination of tax increases and spending cuts that scheduled to hit in early 2013 if nothing changes.”
Dye says that while Texas is doing well enough now, these outside factors could act as a drag on growth down the road.