Comerica chief economist Robert Dye says the pickup in September after a flat July and August is similar to what Texas saw in the middle of 2010.
“My sense is that Texas continues to generate jobs. We have oil prices still well in a favorable range for the state. Drilling activity remains high. Sort of a mixed bag with manufacturing, but I think overall trends are still going in the right direction.”
Dye says Texas is facing headwinds from slower growth elsewhere in the U.S., as well as the prospect of a steep recession in Europe.
“We have enough signs of domestic strength that I think we’re going to skirt a recession here in 2012, but we’re going to have to watch very closely and make sure these downside risks don’t accumulate.”
Comerica’s Texas Economic Activity Index weighs eight seasonally adjusted indicators. They reflect activity in manufacturing, travel and trade, as well as job growth and consumer spending.