The Waco-based Perryman has studied Texas and its metro economies for four decades. His views on Houston’s long-term outlook are as bright as anyone’s.
In his latest forecast on behalf of the Greater Houston Partnership, Perryman says the region’s economy will more than double over the next quarter century. And, he says, cuts to government spending could contribute to that by freeing up money for private sector investment. But that’s over the long term.
“At this stage in an economic recovery, typically, the government would be playing a pretty high1`ly stimulatory role in the economy, and you would be seeing every month big gains in public sector jobs around the country, and in fact you’re seeing the opposite of that because of the fiscal situation confronting both the federal government and state and local governments.”
Since January 2010, the metro area has recouped about three-quarters of the jobs it lost during the recession. That recovery has been uneven, though. Health care, food and hotel services and education have all passed pre-recession highs. By contrast, jobs in finance, construction, real estate and IT are still down more than 80%.